2015 IAPF Investment Conference: Brian Delaney Presenting

2015 IAPF Investment Conference: Brian Delaney Presenting

I spoke at the Irish Association of Pension Funds (IAPF) annual investment conference at the Print Works, Dublin Castle on 26th March 2015 on the topic of Currency Management. Here is my presentation...

When interest rates hit 0% and central bank money printing has stretched stock market valuations, the effectiveness of monetary policy becomes limited and only enforceable through the currency. The chart on the lower left shows plunging 10-year government bond yields while the chart on the right shows the prospective 10-year total return for the S&P 500 based on a range of historically reliable valuation methodologies. We also see overlaid on the chart the actual subsequent 10-year total return for the S&P 500 (dark green line). The chart suggests that the total return for S&P 500 for the next 10 years will be approximately 0% per annum, down from approximately 8% per annum today.

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IAPF 2014 Annual Investment Conference

IAPF 2014 Annual Investment Conference

As the majority of defined benefit pension schemes in Ireland today continue to work towards closing their respective funding deficits in the face of stringent regulations set out by the Pensions Authority's, we ask whether trustees are in danger of excessive prudence and being forced into making difficult investment decisions that could result in poor outcomes for members, not by choice but by compulsion.

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