A Different Analytical Approach

A Different Analytical Approach

I have read with great interest the arguments put forward here by Anatole that equities are in a “structural” bull market. Having listened closely to his presentation at Gavekal’s London seminar, I now understand where our main point of difference lies. Anatole argues that we are in a bull market that began in 2013 when US stocks broke above their long-established trading range and which continues to this day.  In a nutshell, he looks at the red line in the chart below and concludes that the consolidation which started in 2000 ended in 2013. Ever since, the market has been in a structural bull trend similar to those it saw between 1900 and 1929, and from the mid-1940's to 2000. This approach allowed Anatole to make a great call in 2013-14.

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