March 2016 Investor Letter
/Active Asset Allocator Performance
Investment Philosophy and Approach
The Active Asset Allocator investment strategy is designed to deliver a consistent level of positive returns over time with a strong focus on capital preservation. I follow a multi-asset investment approach, actively allocating between global equities, bonds, precious metals, currencies and cash. I always invest with the primary trend of the market and do not follow a benchmark. Instead, I manage the market risk for my clients. My strategy has returned +11% per annum net of fees since inception with a lower level of risk than the average multi-asset fund. My active asset allocation approach is best illustrated in the following chart.
Executive Summary
Equity bull market or bear? The moment of truth has arrived. Following a -21% decline from the May 2015 top to the January 2016 low, stocks have staged a rally back to the now down-sloping 50-week moving average (50WMA). What was once support is now resistance. This month, I examine price action, volume and volatility trends to examine whether stocks have the required strength to break out to new highs or whether new lows are around the corner.
Bonds are off to another good start in 2016, despite 30% of all global government bonds now sporting a negative yield. I examine the bullish case and highlight my key concerns for fixed income investors. I also provide an update on the unfolding bull market in precious metals. The Active Asset Allocator remains defensively positioned with euros, bonds and precious metals accounting for 80% of the asset mix.
Finally, a note on 29 Trades, a new investment strategy at Secure Investments. I have been following the short-term (daily) and medium-term (investor) cycles of the gold market for over 10 years and have identified specific patterns, a rhythm, to the market that repeats with regularity as the daily and investor cycles ebb and flow. 29 Trades has emerged from many hours of analysis and has the potential to deliver exceptional returns over time for investors in a risk controlled way. Please get in touch for more information.
Stock Market Update
The moment of truth has arrived for the stock market. Either the top is in and this bear-market rally is about to roll over, or the past 10 months have been nothing more than a sharp correction in an ongoing bull market. We should find out soon enough. The Active Asset Allocator remains defensively positioned for now with an asset mix of 20% equities, 30% bonds, 30% gold, 20% cash.
We began 2016 with a waterfall decline in the stock market, the worst start to the year in recorded history. At the January 2016 low, stocks had declined -21% from their May 2015 peak. The market then experienced a powerful and impressive rally over the last 4 weeks, back to the now down-sloping 50-week moving average (50WMA). The FTSE All World Index, the global stock market barometer, closed the week just 6 points below the 50WMA.
In the United States, the Nasdaq Composite, Russell 2000 Small Cap Index and Value Line Geometric Index continue to trade below their long-term MA's. However, in a bullish development this month, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials, Transports and Utilities Indices have all recaptured the 50WMA.
On another positive note, new highs on the NYSE are now outpacing new lows for the first time in almost a year (lower left chart) while 51% of NYSE stocks are now trading above the 200DMA compared with just 16% at the beginning of 2016 (lower right chart). Both are requirements for a sustained stock market rally to take hold. It is too early to tell whether the recent buying power has been driven by aggressive short-covering or large institutional players taking new positions. The stock market should reveal its hand shortly.
Volume flowing into advancing stocks relative to declining stocks has picked up in March but not yet to a significant degree. The recent turn is notable. If this trend in rising volume persists and follows price to new highs in the months ahead, the bulls will have regained control and I will move to a fully invested position in the Active Asset Allocator. Stay tuned.
Volatility is also rising and tracing out a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. The VIX Index surged to 32 in January 2016, a new high for the move, before declining back to 14 this month, a higher low. The pattern of higher highs and higher lows is signalling a increase in investor concern and demand for portfolio insurance. If volatility picks up in the next few weeks, it should coincide with lower stock prices. Conversely, a break to new lows for the VIX will signal the all clear for stock markets as we head into the summer months.
For more information on my stock market analysis, please get in touch. You can reach me at brian@secureinvestments.ie or 086 821 5911.
Bond Market Update
Over 60% of global government bonds today yield less than 1% and almost 30% of global government bonds now have negative yields. While difficult to comprehend, it makes some sense given that global economic growth expectations are deteriorating, inflation is benign, and central banks have cut short-term rates to zero or below.
In January 2016, the Japanese central bank announced an interest rate cut to -0.1%. In March, the ECB followed suit with a rate cut to -0.4%. A couple of weeks later, the Federal Reserve lowered market expectations for further interest rate increases this year due to a weaker global growth outlook and volatile market conditions.
As long as central banks continue to drive short-term rates lower and use newly printed money to buy government bonds, the bull market in bonds should continue. A period of stock market volatility should also provide an additional source of demand. I see two key risks for fixed income investors: (i) a policy change by key central banks to step back from quantitative easing, and (ii) an unanticipated rise in inflation. I rate the probability of a central bank policy reversal as near zero. An inflation scare is a potentially higher probability event given the trillions of dollars of newly printed money that has been pumped into the system and the law of unintended consequences. I am watching closely for signs. In fact, inflation-linked bonds have started to rally in the US, UK and EU, coincident with the recent bottom in commodity markets. If this trend persists, I will increase the allocation to inflation-linked bonds in the Active Asset Allocator from 5% to 10% and reduce the allocation to fixed interest rate bonds from 20% to 15%.
For more information on my bond market analysis, please get in touch. You can reach me at brian@secureinvestments.ie or 086 821 5911.
Gold Market Update
Last month, I noted that gold crossed bullishly above its long-term 20 month moving average for the first time since topping out at $1,923 in 2011. Gold has continued to trade above the 20MMA and is about to be joined by silver this month. Silver holds both precious metal and industrial properties. Silver is considerably more volatile than gold, but also offers more upside and a good degree of inflation protection in a world gone mad with central bankers threatening money printing ad infinitum.
Last month, I also noted the recent strong performance of the gold mining stocks. Over the last four weeks, the miners have rallied another +20%. Fortunes will be made in this sector over the course of the bull market in precious metals.
The bull market in precious metals has historically coincided with periods of USD weakness. This time may be different as central banks across the world are all working towards the same goal as they attempt to destroy the value of their own currency relative to other to gain a competitive edge. Trillions of dollars, euros, pounds and yen have been created out of thin air. I expect USD weakness to drive the gold bull market in the years ahead, but potentially not to the same degree as prior episodes as the Fed has more competition this time. Gold will be the last currency standing when this game finally ends.
For more information on my gold market analysis, please get in touch. You can reach me at brian@secureinvestments.ie or 086 821 5911.
