Gold Trader - Trades 22 & 23

Gold Trader: Trade 22 closed on Monday 29th October at $1,225 for a loss of -3.4%, when gold lost the 10DMA in what was either a half-cycle low or a shallow correction to end a short 2nd DC. I opened Trade 23 on Wednesday 31st October at $1,214. After a short pop higher, gold rolled over once again and I closed this position at $1,208 for a loss of -0.5%. Gold Trader ended 2017 +12.0% and has returned -7.2% in 2018 YTD.

Gold PowerTrader Trade 22 closed on Monday 29th October at $1,225 for a loss of -7.0%. I opened Trade 23 on Wednesday 31st October at $1,214. After a brief rally, gold declined forcing me to close this position at $1,208 for a loss of -0.5%. Gold PowerTrader ended 2017 +22.3% and has returned -14.8% in 2018 YTD.

I entered Trade 22, a long position in gold, all the way back on 22nd June at $1,268, on day 22 of Gold’s 4th daily cycle. Gold’s medium-term Investor Cycle had run 27 weeks and I had expected gold to complete its ICL above the prior ICL in December 2017 at $1,238. Shortly after entering the position, gold dropped to $1,240, then quickly recovered the full decline before rolling over into a DCL on 19th July. An uncharacteristic 5th DC followed and I had to cut the position in half on 15th August at $1,187 as gold made its final decline into an ICL. I added back the half position I sold a week later on 20th August at $1,190, as gold kicked off a new medium-term investor cycle.

DC1 ran 36 days and traded sideways for the majority of that time, building energy while turning the trend from down to up (similar to DC1 in December 2015). DC2 kicked off on 9th October with a strong $50 rally from $1,190 to $1240. The subsequent correction resulted in gold closing below its short-term moving average, leading me to close the position at $1,225. I opened Trade 23 on 31st October at $1,215 but again, following a short pop higher, gold rolled over forcing me to close this position at $1,208 for a loss of -0.5%.

 
Screen Shot 2018-10-31 at 15.40.50.jpg
 

It has been a difficult year calling the cycles in the precious metals market. There are a number of very favourable fundamental and technical factors backing the bull case for gold, which I expect will begin to play out once central banks back off on their rate hiking cycle.

Since inception, Gold Trader has returned +8.5% and Gold PowerTrader has returned +0.7%.

gold trader performance.jpg

For more information on my gold market analysis, please get in touch. You can reach me at brian@secureinvestments.ie or at 086 821 5911.

Gold Trader - Trade 20

Gold Trader: Trade 20 closed on Friday 2nd March at $1,303 for a loss of -2.8%. Gold Trader ended 2017 +12.0% and has returned +0.6% in 2018 YTD.

Gold PowerTrader Trade 20 closed on Friday 2nd March at $1,303 for a loss of -5.6%. Gold PowerTrader ended 2017 +22.3% and has returned +0.8% in 2018 YTD.

I entered Trade 20, a long position in gold, on 31st January at $1,340, on day 33 of DC1, looking to capture what is typically a strong second daily cycle for gold. On average, DC2's for gold rally +7.7% over 15 days before topping out, so I was quite confident this trade would be a winner.

 
st gold.jpg
 

DC1 ran a little long, bottoming on day 39 at $1,319, but once DC2 started, gold accelerated higher, adding 3% over five trading days. Unfortunately, and somewhat uncharacteristically, that was it for this daily cycle. Gold turned sharply lower and actually took out the preceding low for DC1, forcing me to close out the position. Gold should not make new lows once a new investor cycle begins, so I am back to cautious on the precious metal for the remainder of this Investor Cycle. My longer-term view remains unchanged. I am very bullish on the precious metals.

After 20 trades, Gold Trader has returned +17.0% and Gold PowerTrader has returned +17.4%.

GT Performance.jpg

For more information on my gold market analysis, please get in touch. You can reach me at brian@secureinvestments.ie or at 086 821 5911.