Gold Trader - Trades 22 & 23

Gold Trader: Trade 22 closed on Monday 29th October at $1,225 for a loss of -3.4%, when gold lost the 10DMA in what was either a half-cycle low or a shallow correction to end a short 2nd DC. I opened Trade 23 on Wednesday 31st October at $1,214. After a short pop higher, gold rolled over once again and I closed this position at $1,208 for a loss of -0.5%. Gold Trader ended 2017 +12.0% and has returned -7.2% in 2018 YTD.

Gold PowerTrader Trade 22 closed on Monday 29th October at $1,225 for a loss of -7.0%. I opened Trade 23 on Wednesday 31st October at $1,214. After a brief rally, gold declined forcing me to close this position at $1,208 for a loss of -0.5%. Gold PowerTrader ended 2017 +22.3% and has returned -14.8% in 2018 YTD.

I entered Trade 22, a long position in gold, all the way back on 22nd June at $1,268, on day 22 of Gold’s 4th daily cycle. Gold’s medium-term Investor Cycle had run 27 weeks and I had expected gold to complete its ICL above the prior ICL in December 2017 at $1,238. Shortly after entering the position, gold dropped to $1,240, then quickly recovered the full decline before rolling over into a DCL on 19th July. An uncharacteristic 5th DC followed and I had to cut the position in half on 15th August at $1,187 as gold made its final decline into an ICL. I added back the half position I sold a week later on 20th August at $1,190, as gold kicked off a new medium-term investor cycle.

DC1 ran 36 days and traded sideways for the majority of that time, building energy while turning the trend from down to up (similar to DC1 in December 2015). DC2 kicked off on 9th October with a strong $50 rally from $1,190 to $1240. The subsequent correction resulted in gold closing below its short-term moving average, leading me to close the position at $1,225. I opened Trade 23 on 31st October at $1,215 but again, following a short pop higher, gold rolled over forcing me to close this position at $1,208 for a loss of -0.5%.

 
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It has been a difficult year calling the cycles in the precious metals market. There are a number of very favourable fundamental and technical factors backing the bull case for gold, which I expect will begin to play out once central banks back off on their rate hiking cycle.

Since inception, Gold Trader has returned +8.5% and Gold PowerTrader has returned +0.7%.

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For more information on my gold market analysis, please get in touch. You can reach me at brian@secureinvestments.ie or at 086 821 5911.

Gold Trader - Trade 21

Gold Trader: Trade 21 closed on Thursday 21st June at $1,264 for a loss of -3.5%. Gold Trader ended 2017 +12.0% and has returned -2.9% in 2018 YTD.

Gold PowerTrader Trade 21 closed on Thursday 21st June at $1,264 for a loss of -7.0%. Gold PowerTrader ended 2017 +22.3% and has returned -6.3% in 2018 YTD.

I entered Trade 21, a long position in gold, on 4th May at $1,310 having patiently waited two months for a low risk set up to occur, while gold traded in a choppy, sideways pattern over that period. That patience was rewarded, as I avoided the $70 decline in April from $1,369 to $1,300 and bought gold 3 days in to a new daily cycle. I thought there was a very good chance that gold had started a new Investor Cycle (IC) and the trade would work out very well. (New IC's happen only twice a year and are very profitable if you can invest near the low). Gold spent the next 6 weeks trading sideways again and then dropped last week, forcing me to close out the position on Thursday for a loss.

 
 

As luck would have it, gold appears to have put in a tradable low this week. It could mark the end of the current IC, which is why I placed Gold Trader Trade 22 on Friday. If we are starting a new IC, this trade will be very profitable and I don't want to miss the turn. Another clue that gold may be about it reverse is the recent strong relative performance of the gold mining stocks. Usually when gold declines, the miners, leveraged plays on the gold price, tend to drop hard. This is not the case now and I will be writing about that shortly in relation to the Active Asset Allocator strategy.

After 21 trades, Gold Trader has returned +12.9% and Gold PowerTrader has returned +9.5%.

For more information on my gold market analysis, please get in touch. You can reach me at brian@secureinvestments.ie or at 086 821 5911.

Gold Trader - Trade 20

Gold Trader: Trade 20 closed on Friday 2nd March at $1,303 for a loss of -2.8%. Gold Trader ended 2017 +12.0% and has returned +0.6% in 2018 YTD.

Gold PowerTrader Trade 20 closed on Friday 2nd March at $1,303 for a loss of -5.6%. Gold PowerTrader ended 2017 +22.3% and has returned +0.8% in 2018 YTD.

I entered Trade 20, a long position in gold, on 31st January at $1,340, on day 33 of DC1, looking to capture what is typically a strong second daily cycle for gold. On average, DC2's for gold rally +7.7% over 15 days before topping out, so I was quite confident this trade would be a winner.

 
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DC1 ran a little long, bottoming on day 39 at $1,319, but once DC2 started, gold accelerated higher, adding 3% over five trading days. Unfortunately, and somewhat uncharacteristically, that was it for this daily cycle. Gold turned sharply lower and actually took out the preceding low for DC1, forcing me to close out the position. Gold should not make new lows once a new investor cycle begins, so I am back to cautious on the precious metal for the remainder of this Investor Cycle. My longer-term view remains unchanged. I am very bullish on the precious metals.

After 20 trades, Gold Trader has returned +17.0% and Gold PowerTrader has returned +17.4%.

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For more information on my gold market analysis, please get in touch. You can reach me at brian@secureinvestments.ie or at 086 821 5911.

Gold Trader - Trade 19

Gold Trader: Trade 19 closed on Thursday 25th January at $1,348 for a gain of +7.2%. Gold Trader ended 2017 +12.0% and has returned +3.5% in 2018 YTD.

Gold PowerTrader Trade 19 closed on Thursday 25th January at $1,348 for a gain of +15.0%. Gold PowerTrader ended 2017 +22.3% and has returned +6.5% in 2018 YTD.

I entered Trade 19, a long position in gold, on 18th December at $1,258, four days into a new Investor Cycle. I am expecting big things from gold this year and have not been disappointed so far. DC1 has been quite powerful. The USD is in big trouble and that has only just started to have a positive impact on precious metals. I closed the position yesterday on Day 29. Gold reacted yesterday to comments made by Trump that the "USD will get stronger and stronger" under his presidency. I expect the opposite will happen. 

 
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I expect the drop into the daily cycle low for gold as DC1 ends and DC2 begins will be quite mild and will perhaps only last a few days. I expect DC2 will be equally powerful and the trick will be to get on board for the next run, potentially to $1,500 next month.

 I have made some refinements to my Gold Trader strategy, which I think will improve performance this year. I have widened the stop loss from 2% to 3% and will also show more patience on trade entries; a study of past performance has shown that on average, I have entered trades 7 days too early. The combination of these adjustments should improve the win rate on trades to 75% (the win rate is typically 40%-55% across the hedge fund community) and increase the average win percentage closer to 5%+ per trade. We are off to a great start. 

After 19 trades, Gold Trader has returned +20.3% and Gold PowerTrader has returned +24.4%.

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For more information on my gold market analysis, please get in touch. You can reach me at brian@secureinvestments.ie or at 086 821 5911.

Gold Trader - Trade 18

Gold Trader: Trade 18 closed on 16th October at $1,299 for a gain of +1.6%. Gold Trader has returned +8.1% in 2017 YTD, while Gold PowerTrader has returned +13.8% in 2017 YTD.

I entered Trade 18, a long position in gold, on 3rd October at $1,278. This trade was a second attempt to catch gold's turn higher into the start of DC3. Gold daily cycles typically run 22-29 days on average. I bought gold on day 39 of DC2, after stopping out for a 3% loss on the previous trade. I generally do not buy DC3 lows but the set up was low risk and there was a chance that gold could break $1,300 and run to $1,350, so I was happy to place the trade on this occasion. 

 
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Gold ran into resistance yesterday, 16th October just above $1,300, on day 6 of DC3. Given that we are in the latter half of gold's current IC, there is a risk that gold could decline into an ICL over the next few weeks, so I closed the trade at $1,299 for a gain of 1.6%.

After 18 trades, Gold Trader has returned +12.3% and Gold PowerTrader has returned +8.2%.

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For more information on this exciting new strategy for Secure Investments, or to open an account, please contact Brian Delaney at 086 821 5911 or brian@secureinvestments.ie.

Gold Trader - Trade 17

Gold Trader: Trade 17 closed on 1st October at $1,277 for a loss of -3.2%. Gold Trader has returned +6.3% in 2017 YTD, while Gold PowerTrader has returned +9.8% in 2017 YTD.

I entered Trade 17, a long position in gold, on 20th September at an average price of $1,319. Gold daily cycles typically run 22-29 days on average, so buying on day 30 was a relatively low risk trade. Of course, as luck would have it, the current cycle has stretched to quite an uncommon 41 days so far. I had to respect the market action and closed the trade for a loss this time. 

 
 

After 17 trades, Gold Trader has returned +10.5% and Gold PowerTrader has returned +4.7%.

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For more information on this exciting new strategy for Secure Investments, or to open an account, please contact Brian Delaney at 086 821 5911 or brian@secureinvestments.ie.

Gold Trader - Trade 16

Gold Trader - Trade 16 closed on Tuesday evening at $1,340 for a gain of +6.3%. Gold Trader has returned +9.9% in 2017 YTD. Gold PowerTrader closed for a gain of +11.2% and has returned +17.5% in 2017 YTD.

Gold Trader caught a large part of the recent rally in precious metals and I expect as the bull market in gold returns, we will have many more of these kinds of profitable trades. I entered Trade 16, a long position in gold, on 26th July 2017 at $1,261, looking to capture gold's breakout and start of DC2. I outlined my thoughts on Gold in the August 2017 Investor Letter, summarised below:

Gold is setting up for a big move, so let me lay out my expectations for what I believe will happen over the remainder of 2017 and beyond. Gold’s first task is to break above $1,300, which I expect will happen in August or September. A break above $1,300 would be significant for a number of reasons. Gold made a series of higher lows in 2017 since the washout decline to $1,124 in December 2016. Gold trading above $1,300 adds support to the view that the bear market in precious metals (2011-2016) has ended and a new bull market has begun confirmed by a rising trend in the gold price.

A break above $1,300 would also be significant as it would confirm a break out of the longer-term triangle consolidation that has been in place since gold topped at $1,923 in 2011. Once we get a good close above $1,300, I expect a sharp run higher towards $1,400 or $1,500 before the next consolidation. $1,500 represented strong support in 2011 and 2012 before it gave way in 2013, so I expect gold will take some time to get back above that level. After $1,500, I expect gold will challenge and ultimately exceed the all time highs above $1,900, probably in 2019. Once gold clears $1,900, I believe the bubble phase in precious metals will begin and gold will have a monster move higher in an epic bull market that will be a sight to behold..... but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. $1,300 in August/September, $1,400-$1,500 by year-end and $1,900 in 2019, which is 50% above today’s gold price.
— Brian Delaney, Secure Investments (August 2017 Investor Letter)
 
 

Gold is stretched and overbought in the short-term and on Day 20 of DC2 so I am expecting a consolidation and/or brief correction shortly. Gold Trader will be looking for another long entry at the next daily cycle low to capture the beginning of DC3.

After 16 trades, Gold Trader has returned +14.1% and Gold PowerTrader has returned +11.8%.

For more information on this exciting new strategy for Secure Investments, or to open an account, please contact Brian Delaney at 086 821 5911 or brian@secureinvestments.ie.

Gold Update

Gold has had a quiet year so far in 2017, but that may be about to change. In my August Investor Letter, I noted:

Gold is setting up for a big move, so let me lay out my expectations for what I believe will happen over the remainder of 2017 and beyond. Gold’s first task is to break above $1,300, which I expect will happen in August or September. A break above $1,300 would be significant for a number of reasons. Gold made a series of higher lows in 2017 since the washout decline to $1,124 in December 2016. Gold trading above $1,300 adds support to the view that the bear market in precious metals (2011-2016) has ended and a new bull market has begun confirmed by a rising trend in the gold price.
— August 2017 Investor Letter, Secure Investments
 
 

Gold has rallied sharply in recent weeks and is now just $10 away from breaking above $1,300; so far so good. I my latest report, I also outlined my longer-term expectations for the precious metals.

A break above $1,300 would also be significant as it would confirm a break out of the longer-term triangle consolidation that has been in place since gold topped at $1,923 in 2011. Once we get a good close above $1,300, I expect a sharp run higher towards $1,400 or $1,500 before the next consolidation. $1,500 represented strong support in 2011 and 2012 before it gave way in 2013, so I expect gold will take some time to get back above that level. After $1,500, I expect gold will challenge and ultimately exceed the all time highs above $1,900, probably in 2019. Once gold clears $1,900, I believe the bubble phase in precious metals will begin and gold will have a monster move higher in an epic bull market that will be a sight to behold..... but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. $1,300 in August/September, $1,400-$1,500 by year-end and $1,900 in 2019, which is 50% above today’s gold price.
— August 2017 Investor Letter, Secure Investments

On Thursday 10th August, gold broke out above its 6-year declining trend, which is a very significant move and again, in line with my expectations. Defensive assets (precious metals and government bonds) are starting to outperform again and the stock market looks quite vulnerable. Patience will be rewarded and opportunities will present themselves in the months ahead for Active Asset Allocator and Gold Trader investors.

 
 

Gold Trader Trade 16 is still live and currently +2.3% (Gold PowerTrader Trade 16 +4.0%). 

For more information on this exciting new strategy for Secure Investments, or to open an account, please contact Brian Delaney at 086 821 5911 or brian@secureinvestments.ie.

Gold Trader - Trades 14 & 15

Trade 14 closed on 7th July at $1,216 for a loss of -2.6%. I entered Trade 15 on 20th July at $1,243, a long position looking to capture DC1 of a new IC. I closed this trade on 25th July ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow afternoon, at $1250 for a profit of +0.6%. I plan to re-enter the trade later this week. Gold Trader has returned +3.3% in 2017 YTD. Gold PowerTrader has returned +5.7% in 2017 YTD.

 
 

After 15 trades, Gold Trader has returned +7.3% and Gold PowerTrader has returned +0.6%.

For more information on this exciting new strategy for Secure Investments, or to open an account, please contact Brian Delaney at 086 821 5911 or brian@secureinvestments.ie.

Gold Trader - Trade 13

Gold Trader - Trade 13 closed on Tuesday afternoon at $1,244 for a gain of +1.0%. Gold Trader has returned +5.4% in 2017 YTD. Gold PowerTrader closed for a gain of +1.8% and has returned +9.7% in 2017 YTD.

We are at an interesting juncture with gold. I entered Trade 13, a short position in gold, on 17th May 2017 at $1,257, expecting to capture the final drop into an Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) before the next leg of the gold bull market started. Shorting on Day 6 of gold's fourth daily cycle is usually a low risk and profitable trade as the cycle is typically left-translated (peaks early and spends the majority  of time declining). After placing the trade, gold stalled for a week, then rallied 3% to $1,298 before declining to $1,244 today. Gold is now on day 30 and due for a DCL and/or ICL shortly.

 
 

If gold bottoms in the next few days as it should, this cycle will be right-translated and gold will have made another higher high and higher low, signalling that a new Intermediate Cycle has already begun. Gold still has time to decline below the prior low at $1,214 but would need to fall for at least another 10 trading days to turn this cycle left-translated and complete the current IC. It could happen but the odds are against it, which is why I closed the trade today at $1,244 for a 1% gain.

The next trade will likely be a long position in gold once a clear set up emerges. Gold has three choices from here: 1) we could experience continued selling for another week or two as the current IC completes; 2) we could already be in a new IC and about to start DC2; or 3) gold could make a DCL shortly, rally for a week and roll over into a deeper ICL in July. 

The gold miners and spot silver prices have been quite lethargic of late, which suggests that a new IC has not yet started. However, gold has performed better and is making a pattern of higher highs and higher lows and the current DC is right-translated. Tomorrow is Day 31 for gold and a new DC is just around the corner. I plan to buy it and watch the next cycle unfold with interest.

After 13 trades, Gold Trader has returned +9.5% and Gold PowerTrader has returned +4.4%.

For more information on this exciting new strategy for Secure Investments, or to open an account, please contact Brian Delaney at 086 821 5911 or brian@secureinvestments.ie.

Gold Trader - Trade 12

Gold Trader Trade 12 closed on Tuesday at $1,227 for a gain of +2.0% and has returned +4.4% in 2017 YTD. Gold PowerTrader closed for a gain of +3.5% and has returned +7.8% in 2017 YTD).

Gold's third and fourth daily cycles are typically quite weak, topping early and spending the majority of time in decline. I entered Trade 12, a short position in gold, on 28th March at $1,252 in anticipation of catching the latter part of gold's DC3 decline. A short-time later, the US dropped the 'Mother of all Bombs' on ISIS caves in Afghanistan (13th April) causing a short-term spike in the gold price. News-based events can skew the cycle from time to time, but the gold cycle always plays out in the end. Patience was rewarded and I have closed out another profitable trade for the strategy.

 
 

Even though gold may not appear that strong at first glance, for the first time in years, gold has put in three right-translated daily cycles in a row during the current investor cycle. During each daily cycle, gold has spent more time rising than falling. This is a change in character for the precious metal and a sign that the bull market is returning.

The next trade could be another short position at the top of DC4 if a low risk set up occurs. Gold has another 3-6 weeks before the next investor cycle low, potentially around $1,170. Once that low is in place, I expect a very strong move higher for the metal and mining companies.

After 12 trades, Gold Trader has returned +8.4% and Gold PowerTrader has returned +2.6%.

For more information on this exciting new strategy for Secure Investments, or to open an account, please contact Brian Delaney at 086 821 5911 or brian@secureinvestments.ie.

Gold Trader - Trade 11

Gold Trader Trade 11 closed on Wednesday (Day 17 of DC2) at $1,232 for a gain of +2.3% and we are off to a positive start for 2017.

Gold's last investor cycle bottomed on 15th December 2016 at $1,124. The first daily cycle (DC1) of a new IC kicked off over the Christmas holiday and rallied +8.5% to $1,220 on 24th January 2017 before declining into a daily cycle low at $1,180 on 27th January. I entered Trade 11 on Day 3 of DC2 on 1st February at $1,204. 

Gold is on Day 17 today and showing some signs of weakness trading below its 10DMA, so I have closed the position. Gold has some work to do to break above overhead resistance in the $1,240- $1,250 range. I think gold will do it but it might not happen until DC3. 

 
 

After 11 trades, Gold Trader has returned +6.3% and Gold PowerTrader has returned -0.9%.

For more information on this exciting new strategy for Secure Investments, or to open an account, please contact Brian Delaney at 086 821 5911 or brian@secureinvestments.ie.

Gold Trader - Trade 10

Gold Trader Trade 10 opened on 22nd November at $1,214 on Day 32 of gold's fourth daily cycle, well within the timing band for a DCL and ICL. As luck would have it, gold broke lower the following day and traded between $1,180 and $1,200 (target stop level $1,190) for the next 6 trading days. I continued to hold the position as gold had reached day 38 of the fourth and final daily cycle and I expected an imminent turn higher for the precious metal. Unfortunately, gold failed to close above the 10DMA and following another break lower, I was forced to close the position at $1,168 on Day 40 for a loss of -3.8%. 

 
 

Gold continued to trade lower over the following 8 trading days and finally bottomed on Day 48 at $1,124. Day 48 is the longest daily cycle count on record over 10 years of research. Gold closed above the 10DMA on 28th December confirming a new daily cycle. 

After 10 trades, Gold trader has returned +3.9% and Gold PowerTrader has returned -4.8%. 

For more information on this exciting new strategy for Secure Investments, or to open an account, please contact Brian Delaney at 086 821 5911 or brian@secureinvestments.ie.

Gold Trader - Trade 9

Trade 9 closed on Thursday at $1,267 with a small gain of +0.6%. Following a $70 drop in the gold price in early October, I entered Trade 9 on 7th October at $1,260 in the expectation of capturing the start of a new Investor Cycle (IC) for gold. First daily cycles are generally quite powerful, but there was a lack of energy with this move. Gold added only $15 over 14 trading days before retracing part of the move this week. This means gold is still working on finishing the current IC, which I expect will take another 5-15 days to complete, after which, Gold Trader - Trade 10 will look to re-enter the market. Stay tuned.

After 9 trades, Gold Trader has returned +7.9% and Gold PowerTrader has returned +1.6%.

 
 

For more information on this exciting new strategy for Secure Investments, or to open an account, please contact Brian Delaney at 086 821 5911 or brian@secureinvestments.ie.

Gold Trader - Trade 8

Trade 8 closed on Thursday at $1,331 for a loss of -0.4%. A low-risk opportunity presented on Thursday morning to potentially capture the start of gold's third daily cycle (DC3). The risk-reward set-up was compelling. I entered a long position at $1,338 with a stop below the recent low at $1,331, risking 0.4% with an opportunity to capture a 5% rally over the next 10-15 trading days. Unfortunately the stop was triggered but the loss was fractional.

After 8 trades, Gold Trader has returned +7.4% and Gold PowerTrader has returned +0.6%.

 
 

For more information on this exciting new strategy for Secure Investments, or to open an account, please contact Brian Delaney at 086 821 5911 or brian@secureinvestments.ie.

Gold Trader - Trade 7

Trade 7 closed on Friday at breakeven ($1,338). I entered Trade 7 on 12th July, day 29 of DC1. First daily cycles tend to last the longest and this time was no different with DC1 stretching to 36 days, a new record. I entered Trade 7 a week early but close enough to the DCL that the stop wasn't triggered.

Over the next 8 trading days, gold climbed to $1,374 before sliding on a strong US employment report. By Friday, Trade 7 had run out of time, gold had given back all of its gains and closed below the 10DMA. After 7 trades, Gold Trader has returned +7.8% and Gold PowerTrader has returned +1.5%.

 
 

For more information on this exciting new strategy for Secure Investments, or to open an account, please contact Brian Delaney at 086 821 5911 or brian@secureinvestments.ie.

Gold Trader - Trade 6

26/5/2016: GOLD TRADER TRADE 6: LONG GOLD AT $1,228; STOP AT CLOSE BELOW $1,210. POSSIBLE DC1 DAY 1, NEW IC. HOLD FOR 6% GAIN OR MAXIMUM OF 15 TRADING DAYS.

16/6/2016: Gold Trader trade 6 closed this morning at $1,308 for a profit of +6.5% bringing the total return since inception to 7.8%. I entered trade 6 at $1,228 on 26 May 2016 with an objective of buying the start of DC1 of a new IC and holding for a 6% gain or a maximum of 15 trading days. The stop was placed on a close below $1,210, which did not trigger. (Gold PowerTrader had a hard stop, which triggered intra-day on 30th May 2016).


 
 

I have been following the short-term (daily) and medium-term (investor) cycles of the gold market for over 10 years and have identified specific patterns, a rhythm, to the market that repeats with regularity as the daily and investor cycles ebb and flow. The consistency of these patterns peaked my interest and I started recording more detailed analyses of the cycles starting back in 2010. Today, I have data on over 60 daily cycles and those strong, repeatable patterns are clearly visible. Gold Trader and Gold PowerTrader have emerged from many hours of data analysis to test the trading signals my research has uncovered. Gold PowerTrader is a geared version of the Gold Trader investment strategy. Both strategies have the potential to deliver very strong returns for investors over time, in a risk controlled way. I have summarised my analysis in the table below.


Gold typically moves in daily cycles (DC's) of 20-28 trading days per cycle. There are generally 4 or 5 DC's in each medium-term "Investor" cycle (IC). In bull markets, DC1, DC2 and DC3 are strong, followed by selling in DC4 as sentiment is re-set and price returns to the longer-term upward sloping moving average. In bear markets, DC1 and possibly DC2 are positive followed by heavy selling in DC3 and DC4 as the major trend is down and the bear market pulls the gold price lower.

Gold Trader and Gold PowerTrader focus on capturing the strongest and weakest parts of gold's daily cycles, buying daily cycle lows, selling daily cycle highs and holding for 10-15 trading days, depending on the cycle count. Identifying the daily cycle highs and lows allow me to effectively manage my risk on each trade. The strategy aims to capture +5% to 6% profit per trade while risking just 2% each time and has a win rate in excess of 70%.

For more information on this exciting new strategy for Secure Investments, or to open an account, please contact Brian Delaney at 086 821 5911 or brian@secureinvestments.ie.