Sterling Performance Mrs. May

Sterling has been consolidating between €0.82 and €0.94 for over 2 years following a greater than -30% decline in the currency versus EUR in 2016. Today, the UK parliament votes on Teresa May’s Brexit plan. Odds are that May will lose the vote. If she loses by a significant majority, watch for $EURGBP to break out higher from the triangle consolidation as GBP resumes its decline versus EUR. An unexpected vote in favour of May’s plan would see a sharp rally in GBP and a break lower from the 2-year consolidation. While it is not possible to predict the outcome of this afternoon’s vote, I can assign a much higher probability to the longer-term direction of $EURGBP following the break higher or lower from the pattern below.

Look what happened to GBP in 2007 and 2008 after the last long triangle consolidation versus EUR. The $EURGBP exchange rate resolved higher out of the range and GBP fell sharply versus EUR for the next two years. We may not see such an extreme move this time but I am expecting a trending move to begin in this currency pair in 2019. If I was a betting man, I would say that GBP is going to continue to fall versus EUR and we could be looking at parity or worse for our neighbour’s currency later this year.


At Secure Investments, I advise individual clients on their pension and non-pension fund investment portfolios. To learn more about my Active Asset Allocator and Gold Trader  investment strategies, please get in touch at or 086 821 5911. If you are reading this via LinkedIn, why not visit Secure Investments and subscribe to get exclusive content for free. No spam, ever. Just great stuff.


The information contained herein should not be taken as an offer of investment advice or encourage the purchase or sale of of any particular security or investment. It is provided for information purposes only. Secure Investments and its content providers makes no representation or warranty of any kind with respect to the services described, analysis or information obtained arising from use of the pages on this website. Information provided is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable and is provided solely on a best efforts basis. Secure Investments and its content providers do not guarantee the completeness or accuracy of such information and do not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of negligence or otherwise as a result of use or reliance on this information, whether authorised or not. The use of the website is at the user's sole risk. Not all recommendations are necessarily suitable for all investors and investment policy must be tailored to suit the circumstances of the individual. We recommend that readers consult their professional adviser before acting on any advice or recommendation on this website. The value of any investment may fall as well as rise and you may not recover the full amount originally invested. Past performance or simulated performance is no guarantee of future investment returns. The value of your investment may be subject to exchange rate fluctuations which may have a positive or adverse effect on the price or income or the securities.