China Approaching Long-Term Support

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index closed the week at 2,725, down -24% from the January 2018 highs and -47% from the highs of 2015. The Index has not yet reached long-term support, which would come in closer to 2,400, approximately -12% below current levels. I think we will get there and we will see then if China and the broader Emerging Markets Index can find a foothold and begin a longer-term rally. A break below long-term support would result in a much more painful move lower for China and EM stocks and also potentially signal that the US dollar has more room to run higher. 

 
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