Waiting on the Fed

The Federal Reserve meets next Wednesday and will in all likelihood raise short-term interest rates another 25 basis points to 2.25% in an effort to take control of rising inflation rates percolating in the United States. Bond markets are taking note. 2-year treasury yields have doubled over the last 12 months, while 10-year yields are back above 3.0%. This trend cannot persist for long before something breaks. Record levels of debt outstanding means neither the stock market nor the US economy can tolerate significantly higher interest rates. Commodity markets are perking up too. Dr. Copper rallied +3% yesterday and gold is back above $1,200. All eyes are on Jerome Powell next week for future policy clues. The stakes could not be higher.


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