US 10-year yields are currently trading at 2.8%, while shorter-term 2-year yields have surged higher, more than doubling over the last 12 months to 2.6%. The difference between 2 and 10 year yields has reached a scant 20 basis points. The US yield curve is flat as a pancake. Typically, investors demand a higher rate of interest when locking up funds longer term, unless of course they are concerned about the future. Then demand for long-term debt drives bond prices higher and yields lower. When long-term bond yields drop below short-term bond yields, the yield curve inverts. It is a sign that all is not well in the financial system and we are almost at that point today. Once the yield curve inverts, and then normalizes, it signals recessionary times ahead and pain for equity investors.
The conundrum today is that US stock markets are hitting all-time highs in many cases. Which market is correctly predicting the future, stocks or bonds? We are about to find out.
At Secure Investments, I advise individual clients on their pension and non-pension fund investment portfolios. To learn more about my Active Asset Allocator and Gold Trader investment strategies, please get in touch at email@example.com or 086 821 5911. If you are reading this via LinkedIn, why not visit Secure Investments and subscribe to get exclusive content for free. No spam, ever. Just great stuff.
The information contained herein should not be taken as an offer of investment advice or encourage the purchase or sale of of any particular security or investment. It is provided for information purposes only. Secure Investments and its content providers makes no representation or warranty of any kind with respect to the services described, analysis or information obtained arising from use of the pages on this website. Information provided is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable and is provided solely on a best efforts basis. Secure Investments and its content providers do not guarantee the completeness or accuracy of such information and do not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of negligence or otherwise as a result of use or reliance on this information, whether authorised or not. The use of the website is at the user's sole risk. Not all recommendations are necessarily suitable for all investors and investment policy must be tailored to suit the circumstances of the individual. We recommend that readers consult their professional adviser before acting on any advice or recommendation on this website. The value of any investment may fall as well as rise and you may not recover the full amount originally invested. Past performance or simulated performance is no guarantee of future investment returns. The value of your investment may be subject to exchange rate fluctuations which may have a positive or adverse effect on the price or income or the securities.