Dollar Rally Ending

The EUR rallied from $1.03 to $1.25 versus USD in 2017 and has spent the first half of 2018 consolidating those gains. The EUR declined from $1.25 in March to a low of $1.15 in June but that correction looks over now and the USD downtrend should resume shortly. The reason for the USD rally in 2018 is likely in response to the recent round of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve. The Fed hiked rates again in June and the market is pricing in two additional interest rate increases in the US by the end of 2018. If long-term yields remain unchanged, the yield curve will invert as a result of the Fed's actions. The spread between 2 and 10 year Treasury yields is just 29 basis points today. 

 
 

With the market already pricing in short-term rates close to 3.00% this year, the interest rate rising cycle is close to ending and the direction of the USD should shortly reflect this outcome.

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