Long in the Tooth

The current economic expansion is now in its tenth year and is the second longest in history at 36 quarters and counting. We have another year or so to go before this unprecedented period of expansion overtakes the current leader. The run into the 1999/2000 technology bubble and subsequent bust lasted 40 quarters, a full decade of uninterrupted real GDP growth. While the duration of this boom has been unparalleled, its strength has been less impressive. Cumulative growth over the last 9 years has amounted to just 22%, about half that experienced in prior booms of similar duration. Mounting government, corporate and household debt have curtailed spending and lowered the marginal propensity to consume.



Interest rates are now on the rise at a time when government, corporate and household debts are at record highs. Central banks are trying to thread the needle, raising short-term rates just enough to tame the inflationary pressures that are building but not too much as to prick the 'everything bubble'. They are behind the curve but afraid to move too quickly. It will be fascinating to see how this game plays out.

At Secure Investments, I advise individual clients on their pension and non-pension fund investment portfolios. To learn more about my Active Asset Allocator and Gold Trader  investment strategies, please get in touch at brian@secureinvestments.ie or 086 821 5911. If you are reading this via LinkedIn, why not visit Secure Investments and subscribe to get exclusive content for free. No spam, ever. Just great stuff.


The information contained herein should not be taken as an offer of investment advice or encourage the purchase or sale of of any particular security or investment. It is provided for information purposes only. Secure Investments and its content providers makes no representation or warranty of any kind with respect to the services described, analysis or information obtained arising from use of the pages on this website. Information provided is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable and is provided solely on a best efforts basis. Secure Investments and its content providers do not guarantee the completeness or accuracy of such information and do not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of negligence or otherwise as a result of use or reliance on this information, whether authorised or not. The use of the website is at the user's sole risk. Not all recommendations are necessarily suitable for all investors and investment policy must be tailored to suit the circumstances of the individual. We recommend that readers consult their professional adviser before acting on any advice or recommendation on this website. The value of any investment may fall as well as rise and you may not recover the full amount originally invested. Past performance or simulated performance is no guarantee of future investment returns. The value of your investment may be subject to exchange rate fluctuations which may have a positive or adverse effect on the price or income or the securities.