Achtung Baby!

The German economy grew by +2.2% in 2017, its fastest pace in over five years while its fiscal surplus reached 1.2 percent of GDP, the most since the country’s reunification. Despite momentum slowing somewhat in the first quarter of 2018 due to a contraction in manufacturing output, expectations for another year of solid growth remain on track. Last week, Handelsblatt newspaper reported that the German government had saved 290 billion euros since 2008 thanks to the ECB's record-low interest rates! All of this positive news has not been lost on the German stock market, which has more than doubled since 2012. However, the stock market of course is a discounting mechanism and will require a continued stream of positive news into the future for the bullish trend to continue.

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The Dax could be setting up to break out to new all-time highs, or a head and shoulders topping pattern may be in the process of forming. We will know soon enough. If the Dax can break and hold above 13,597 it will likely coincide with a break out to new all time highs in the Eurostoxx 600 Index. The Active Asset Allocator is on watch.


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