They say equity bull markets don't die of old age. Instead, they require an event or catalyst to prick the bubble. In July 2007, two Bear Stearns hedge funds imploded, which signaled the start of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. The S&P 500 corrected sharply following the hedge fund collapse at Bear Stearns, then rallied to make one final new high before collapsing.
In February 2018, a number of short volatility ETF's imploded and the crypto currencies dropped -50-70%. The Federal Reserve is also behind the curve and in the middle of an interest rate rising cycle. If this is the start of the unwind of the 'Everything Bubble', what comes next could be quite unpleasant.
On 2nd March 2018, I lowered the allocation to equities in the Active Asset Allocator from 20% to 0%, moving to a fully defensive position. Stock markets appear to be setting up for a failing rally, a lower high following the surge to new all time highs in January 2018.
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