Following the sharp break lower in October, stock markets are now bouncing from an oversold position. The NYSE Index lost -11% in October, so a relief rally is overdue in the short-term. A lot of damage has been done to the technical picture, however, following the recent sharp decline and it is likely now that a multi-year bear market has begun. Stock markets would need to recover quickly to negate this view. If we are now in a bear market, rallies should be sold rather than dips bought. Stock markets are expensive and there is a lot of room to fall. The Active Asset Allocator is well positioned. While every multi-asset fund and equity fund lost ground in the October decline, the Active Asset Allocator delivered a positive return. I expect more of the same as volatility returns.
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