Trend Reversals

US equities have acted as a port in the storm in 2018 while the majority of other asset classes have delivered negative returns for investors. Unfortunately, it looks like the US stock market is now joining the herd and rolling over after putting up an incredibly strong relative performance in recent years. The S&P 100 Index made a slightly higher high in October 2018 but the underlying trend has weakened sharply. Relative strength and momentum are declining, signaling that the market is set for a reversal. This deteriorating picture is confirmed by the recent sharp reduction (from 80% to just 46%) in the percentage of stocks trading above their long-term moving average. This market is unstable and could break sharply lower. It’s time to play defense.

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