Stock Market Valuations Stretching...

Stock Market Valuations Stretching...

The equity bull market rumbles on, now in its seventh year, and stock market valuations are stretching once again. As investors reach for yield, they are bidding up stock prices and valuations above pre-2007 levels. When you compare the value of US equities to corporate net worth, for example, the ratio (Tobin's Q) indicates US stocks are more expensive today than at any other time in history with the exception of 2000. Valuation alone is not a timing tool but we continue to advise caution and do not recommend carrying an overweight position in stocks at the present time.

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GMO 7 Year Real Return Forecasts - 21st October 2014

GMO 7 Year Real Return Forecasts - 21st October 2014

The investment manager GMO has published its 7-year asset class real return forecasts for 30th September 2014 and they sync very well with our current market views. Based on current stock market valuations, GMO is forecasting negative real returns each year for the next 7 years for US equities of between -1.5% (US large cap stocks) and -4.1% (US small cap stocks). Their expected real return forecast for European stocks is little better at +1.8%, while emerging market equities appears to be the only real bright spot with an expected annual real return of +3.7%.

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Trend Change: 15th October 2014

Trend Change: 15th October 2014

Our Technical Trend Indicator has triggered its first sell signal in over a year and right on queue, stock market volatility has picked up dramatically. Our model portfolio is already defensively positioned due to our concerns about the this ageing equity bull market. Now is not a time to swing for the fences. Capital preservation is always our primary goal.

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US Equities: 7 February 2014

US Equities: 7 February 2014

Following a very consistent rally in global stock markets since the March 2009 lows, the uptrend has accelerated higher over the past 12 months and is now starting to break down. Accelerations higher in stock markets are typically ending patterns, suggesting that the consistent uptrend is now at risk of breaking lower. Those that are following our model portfolio are well positioned with an allocation of 20% stocks, 50% bonds, 20% gold and 10% cash.

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