August 09, 2015

The Most Important Chart in the World

August 09, 2015/ Brian Delaney

The FTSE All World Index, the benchmark for active global equity fund managers, includes stocks from North America (54%), Europe (23%) and Asia (23%) and provides an excellent read of the overall health of the stock market. The recent deterioration in the trend has us concerned. The stock market today is showing signs of weakness similar to the 2007-2008 experience just prior to the wheels coming off and stocks in aggregate are more expensive today than they were in 2007.

October 15, 2014

Trend Change: 15th October 2014

October 15, 2014/ Brian Delaney

Our Technical Trend Indicator has triggered its first sell signal in over a year and right on queue, stock market volatility has picked up dramatically. Our model portfolio is already defensively positioned due to our concerns about the this ageing equity bull market. Now is not a time to swing for the fences. Capital preservation is always our primary goal.

September 24, 2014

Technical Trend Indicator: 24th September 2014

September 24, 2014/ Brian Delaney

How useful has the Technical Trend Indicator (TTI) been as a market timing tool? Very useful it turns out; the TTI has proven to be an excellent barometer of the overall market trend and has caught many of the large inflection points in the stock market over the last seven years as shown in the chart below. The TTI drives the asset allocation decisions taken in Active Asset Allocator Model, which has delivered a 12% per annum return since inception with less risk than the average multi-asset fund.

February 14, 2014

Euro Equities: 14 February 2014

February 14, 2014/ Brian Delaney

European stock markets delivered very solid gains in 2013. The top 600 stocks across the Euro zone rallied +15% in aggregate. The Dow Jones Europe Equity Index gained +18%, while Germany, Italy, Spain and Denmark were all up in excess of 20%. Investor risk appetite has returned as the 2008 collapse fades from memory. In the shorter-term, we have started 2014 on a softer note. Following declines of -5% or more in January, stock markets are now in the process of re-testing their prior December peaks. If those highs are exceeded, this long-in-the-tooth rally should extend for another couple of months. However, if we fail to make new highs in February, selling pressure should increase.

January 21, 2014

US Equities: 21 January 2014

January 21, 2014/ Brian Delaney

The 2014 year-to-date inter-market chart below captures the performance of the major asset classes we follow. Gold has delivered the strongest performance +4.1% YTD, followed by US Treasuries +3.6% and then the US Dollar +1.4%. Stocks, the Euro and Crude Oil have been laggards, with the S&P 500 -0.6%, the Euro -1.7% and Crude -4.6%. We are only a few weeks into the new year, but will be posting frequent updates of this chart in the Charts section of our website. Please check in to keep up to date.