GMO 7 Year Real Return Forecasts - 21st October 2014

GMO 7 Year Real Return Forecasts - 21st October 2014

The investment manager GMO has published its 7-year asset class real return forecasts for 30th September 2014 and they sync very well with our current market views. Based on current stock market valuations, GMO is forecasting negative real returns each year for the next 7 years for US equities of between -1.5% (US large cap stocks) and -4.1% (US small cap stocks). Their expected real return forecast for European stocks is little better at +1.8%, while emerging market equities appears to be the only real bright spot with an expected annual real return of +3.7%.

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Emerging Markets: 7 February 2014

Emerging Markets: 7 February 2014

When measured in US dollars, the stock market performance of the emerging markets has suffered a lot over the past 12 months (top half of the chart below). Asian stock markets have fallen -15.6% in that time, while the Middle East has declined -17.2%. The weakest performing countries have been Indonesia (-32%), Turkey (-23%), South Africa (-20%) and Brazil (-16%). A significant portion of the decline has been currency related. As you can see, the stock market performance in local currency terms (bottom half of the chart below) has been far less dramatic. 

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