Stock Market Crystal Ball

Regular readers will know that we are watching the performance and chart pattern of the FTSE All World Equity Index with interest. This global equity benchmark for fund managers around the world continues to track the 2007/8 stock market top in an eerily similar fashion. We have experienced a sharp selloff in the stock market and are now rallying off the August lows. The bulls will argue we have had our -10% correction and have come through October relatively unscathed, so it's off to the races for the rest of the year. We take a more sanguine view. Given that the global economy is slowing and corporate earnings have been relatively disappointing, there is quite a disconnect in the market today between expectations and reality. 

 
 

While it is possible that stocks consolidate their recent gains in the weeks ahead and break out to new highs, this is not our current expectation. US companies reporting third quarter 2015 earnings are not delivering much in the way of positive news. Alcoa kicked of earnings season in the United States with somewhat disappointing news and their shares were clubbed for -10%. Walmart, considered a bellwether for the US economy, also provided a reality check for those with a bullish bias, delivering quite a sobering outlook for 2016 on their quarterly analyst conference call. WMT shares have plunged -36% so far this year. Financial engineering has put a positive gloss on corporate earnings in recent years but that trend can only last for so long. 

We remain defensively positioned in the Active Asset Allocator for now, 20% equities / 30% bonds / 30% gold / 20% cash.